Mar Ship % (DTC)
21.6%
+4.5pp vs Jan
Mar AOV
$70.41
-$2.72 vs Jan
Avg Label Cost
$14.73
+$2.63 vs Jan
Ship Recovery/Order
$3.08
+$0.39 vs Jan
Free Shipping %
68.4%
-2.5pp vs Jan
Net Absorbed (Mar)
$3,837
Label cost - recovery
Ship Cost % of Revenue - Monthly Trend
AOV vs Label Cost / Order
DTC Monthly Summary
| Month | Orders | Net Sales | Ship Charged | Label Cost | Freightcom | Total Ship | Ship % | AOV | $/Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | 488 | $28,468 | $558 | $4,522 | $186 | $4,708 | 16.5% | $58.34 | $9.27 |
| Oct 25 | 457 | $41,703 | $497 | $6,024 | $193 | $6,217 | 14.9% | $91.25 | $13.18 |
| Nov 25 | 1,717 | $161,579 | $2,358 | $23,673 | $209 | $23,882 | 14.8% | $94.11 | $13.79 |
| Dec 25 | 1,560 | $138,288 | $4,054 | $20,056 | $222 | $20,279 | 14.7% | $88.65 | $12.86 |
| Jan 26 | 416 | $30,422 | $1,120 | $5,033 | $172 | $5,206 | 17.1% | $73.13 | $12.10 |
| Feb 26 | 544 | $39,674 | $1,216 | $7,387 | $168 | $7,555 | 19.0% | $72.93 | $12.76 |
| Mar 26* | 316 | $22,249 | $973 | $4,655 | $155 | $4,810 | 21.6% | $70.41 | $14.73 |
| Total | 5,498 | $462,384 | $10,776 | $71,350 | $1,306 | $72,657 | 15.7% | $84.10 | $12.98 |
* Mar 2026 is partial (through Mar 24). Freightcom estimates for Feb/Mar.
The trend is accelerating in the wrong direction. Ship % has gone from 14.7% (Dec peak season) to 21.6% (Mar). The driver is not label cost ($12-14 range is stable). It's AOV erosion: $94 in Nov down to $70 in Mar. Every $10 drop in AOV adds ~2pp to ship %. The secondary driver is zone mix -- QC share dropped from 49% to 39% while expensive provinces (BC, AB) and US grew.
DTC KPI Dashboard - Monthly
| Metric | Sep 25 | Oct 25 | Nov 25 | Dec 25 | Jan 26 | Feb 26 | Mar 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTC Orders | 488 | 457 | 1,717 | 1,560 | 416 | 544 | 316 |
| AOV | $58.34 | $91.25 | $94.11 | $88.65 | $73.13 | $72.93 | $70.41 |
| Avg Label Cost | $9.27 | $13.18 | $13.79 | $12.86 | $12.10 | $12.76 | $14.73 |
| Ship % of Revenue | 16.5% | 14.9% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 17.1% | 19.0% | 21.6% |
| Avg Weight (kg) | 0.733 | - | 0.835 | 0.874 | 0.643 | 0.728 | 0.719 |
| Avg Items/Order | 4.8 | - | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.2 |
| Free Shipping % | 87.3% | 88.2% | 85.6% | 74.0% | 70.9% | 77.4% | 68.4% |
| Ship Recovery/Order | $1.14 | $1.09 | $1.37 | $2.60 | $2.69 | $2.24 | $3.08 |
Free Ship % Trend
Items per Order Trend
Feb recovery: Free ship % bounced back to 77% (from 71% Jan) but AOV stayed flat at $73. Mar is trending poorly: items/order dropped to 3.2 (lowest ever), free ship % fell to 68%, and label cost spiked to $14.73 due to heavier US/Western shipments. The one bright spot is ship recovery/order hitting $3.08 -- more customers are paying for shipping.
All Channel Shipping Performance
Channel Mix - Ship % of Revenue
Freight Cost by Channel (Freightcom LTL)
| Channel | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb* | Mar* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | $65 | $283 | $232 | $381 | $184 | $195 | $175 |
| Grocery | $110 | $244 | $273 | $323 | $270 | $255 | $280 |
| Web (DTC) | $186 | $193 | $209 | $222 | $172 | $168 | $155 |
| Wholesale | $2,655 | $4,226 | $4,763 | $2,646 | $2,081 | $1,950 | $1,720 |
| TOTAL | $3,016 | $4,946 | $5,477 | $3,573 | $2,707 | $2,568 | $2,330 |
* Feb/Mar estimates pending Freightcom invoices
Channel Revenue vs Freight (Sept 25 - Jan 26 Actuals)
| Channel | Revenue | Total Freight | Ship % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTC (Web) | $400,460 | $60,291 | 15.1% | Above Benchmark |
| Wholesale | $1,204,389 | $16,371 | 1.4% | Healthy |
| Corporate | $327,291 | $1,145 | 0.3% | Very Low |
| Grocery | $199,829 | $1,221 | 0.6% | Efficient |
DTC is the only problem channel. Wholesale (1.4%), Corporate (0.3%), and Grocery (0.6%) are all well within healthy ranges. All optimization effort should focus on DTC shipping economics.
Shipping Zone Distribution
Province Mix - Feb vs Mar 2026
Zone Detail
| Province | Sep | Nov | Jan | Feb | Mar | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QC (cheapest) | 49.4% | 49.5% | 45.5% | 47.3% | 39.1% | Declining |
| ON | 32.1% | 36.1% | 33.5% | 34.2% | 35.1% | Stable |
| BC (expensive) | - | - | - | 6.6% | 8.6% | Growing |
| AB (expensive) | - | - | - | 6.0% | 8.0% | Growing |
| US | - | - | - | 2.2% | 5.5% | Doubling |
QC share dropped 8pp from Sep to Mar. That means more shipments to expensive zones (BC/AB cost $16+/label vs $10-11 for QC). US share more than doubled from Feb to Mar. This is a structural shift that increases avg label cost even if rates stay flat.
Box Size & Weight Analysis
Weight Tier Distribution (Feb-Mar 2026)
| Weight Tier | Orders | % Total | Avg Wt | Box VE | Avg Cost | Billed On | Overpaying? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.25 kg | 76 | 8% | 0.162 | 0.675 | $12.54 | Volumetric | YES - billed at 4.2x actual |
| 0.25 - 0.50 kg | 194 | 21% | 0.373 | 0.675 | $12.61 | Volumetric | YES - billed at 1.8x actual |
| 0.50 - 0.675 kg | 267 | 29% | 0.587 | 0.675 | $12.44 | Volumetric | YES - billed at 1.1x actual |
| 0.675 - 1.0 kg | 250 | 27% | 0.802 | - | $12.91 | Actual | No |
| 1.0 - 1.5 kg | 87 | 9% | 1.172 | - | $14.44 | Actual | No |
| 1.5 - 2.0 kg | 25 | 3% | 1.715 | - | $14.21 | Actual | No |
| Over 2.0 kg | 28 | 3% | 3.038 | - | $17.23 | Actual | No |
58% of orders (537 of 927) are billed on box volume, not actual weight. Current 15x15x15cm box has VE of 0.675kg. A 12x12x10cm box (VE=0.288kg) for orders under 0.5kg would save an estimated $8,700-$10,900/year.
Right-Sizing Scenario
| Box Option | Dimensions | VE | Use For | Orders Affected | Est. Annual Savings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Box | 12x12x10 cm | 0.288 kg | Orders under 0.5 kg | 830 | $8,714 |
| Medium Box | 15x12x10 cm | 0.360 kg | Orders 0.5-0.675 kg | 726 | $2,204 |
| Current (keep) | 15x15x15 cm | 0.675 kg | Orders over 0.675 kg | 1,212 | - |
| TOTAL POTENTIAL SAVINGS | 1,556 | $10,919 | |||
Prioritized Actions
| Priority | Action | Est. Annual Impact | Effort | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 HIGH | Raise free shipping threshold / add flat rate contribution | $15-25K recovery | Low | Not started |
| 2 HIGH | Increase AOV via bundles, upsells, min cart incentives | $10-20K indirect | Medium | Not started |
| 3 MED | Right-size packaging: add small + medium box options | $5-10K | Medium | Not started |
| 4 MED | Negotiate CP Solutions for Small Business volume discount | $3-7K | Low | Not started |
| 5 LOW | Test Purolator/UPS for Western Canada (BC/AB) | $1-3K | Medium | Not started |
| 6 LOW | Regular Parcel for non-urgent repeat orders | $1-2K | Low | Not started |
Benchmarks vs Current Position
Bottom line: At current trends, DTC shipping will absorb ~$95K in FY26 (annualized from $72K in 7 months). Industry benchmark for specialty food DTC is 8-12%. Kanel is at 15.7% cumulative, trending to 21%+. The label cost per order ($12-14) is not the problem -- it is competitive. The problems are: (1) AOV keeps falling ($94 in Nov to $70 in Mar), (2) free shipping threshold is too generous, and (3) single box size wastes money on 58% of orders. Fixing #1 and #2 alone could save $25-45K/year.